Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
